Huang Qifan's Latest Voice
Source:Daily Economic News
On May 14th, the 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum was held online. At the roundtable forum themed on "Innovation, Finance and Technology Competition", a researcher of the National Institute of Innovation and Development Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a special appointment of Fudan University Professor Huang Qifan said that the five current and future challenges are mainly concentrated in the increasing uncertainty of the external environment, low total factor productivity in my country, tight resource and environmental constraints, rapid technological and industrial revolutions, and arduous tasks of inclusive development at the social level.
Huang Qifan believes that to deal with these problems, we must maximize the vitality of China, the largest single market, by deepening reforms, expanding opening up, and stimulating innovation, so as to create a strong gravitational field of global factor resources.
The reporter of "Daily Economic News" noted that Huang Qifan also served as the academic consultant of the China Financial Forty Forum and served as the mayor of Chongqing. At the forum, he said that China will face five challenges at present and in the future.
First, the uncertainty of the external environment has increased. Huang Qifan believes that at present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has deeply impacted the world economy, major developed countries have overissued currencies, commodity prices have fluctuated sharply, and global inflation is gradually approaching. The international economic and trade order has undergone indepth adjustments, and antiglobalization countercurrents have returned from time to time. Ensuring the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain faces more challenges. International conflicts continue to escalate, the situation is becoming more complicated and uncertain, and the uncertainty and unpredictability are increasing. "Grey rhinos" and "black swans" are emerging one after another, putting pressure on macroeconomic stability.
Second, my country's total factor productivity is low. "Since 2008, China's total factor productivity growth rate has tended to decline. At present, my country's total factor productivity growth rate is around 1.25%. By 2035, when my country basically realizes modernization, my country's total factor productivity growth rate must reach 2.7%. If my country's GDP growth rate reaches about 5% in the next 15 years, 2.7% means that its contribution rate to GDP growth will reach 54%, which is very difficult to achieve." Huang Qifan said.
Third, resource and environmental constraints are too tight. Huang Qifan pointed out that while China has become the largest country in the manufacturing industry and the largest country in trade in goods, it has also become a large country in resource and energy consumption, and is too dependent on imports of important resources such as oil, natural gas and iron ore. The longestablished economic model of large inflows and outflows and extensive development is unsustainable in the face of increasingly tight resource and environmental constraints, and there is an urgent need to transform to green development and lowcarbon development.
Fourth, the technological and industrial revolution is changing with each passing day. In Huang Qifan's view, the digital economy with digital industrialization and industrial digitization as its core content, the bioeconomy represented by technological breakthroughs and applications such as cellular immunity, gene editing, and synthetic biology, and the development and promotion of zerocarbon and lowcarbon technologies, etc. The green economy represented by it is reconstructing the industrial chain, supply chain, value chain and innovation chain. In addition to the continuous expansion of deep sea and deep space exploration, braincomputer collaboration, humancomputer interaction, virtual and augmented reality, etc., the future industry will be constantly updated and iterated. How to seize opportunities, participate in and even lead these technological revolutions is an important mission that China should undertake as an important global economy.
Fifth, the task of inclusive development at the social level is arduous. He gave an example: "For example, the trend of population aging is becoming more and more prominent. For another example, although we have solved the problem of absolute poverty, there are still a large number of people in relative poverty. Solving the problem of relative poverty is more complicated and difficult than solving the problem of absolute poverty. There are still many shortcomings in the fields of China, medical care, health care, and culture, and there is still a long way to go to promote the realization of common prosperity."
In response to the above challenges, Huang Qifan believes that the first is to establish an anchor for the renminbi in a timely manner. It is by no means a longterm solution to issue RMB to anchor the dollar. A country's currency should be anchored to the tax content of its own GDP and its own national debt credit. Only in this way can it have its own seigniorage. With an independent currency anchor and its own Treasury bond yield curve, there will be a truly independent monetary policy, and the pricing of all domestic financial assets will have a benchmark." Huang Qifan said.
The second is to promote finance to better serve the real economy. Huang Qifan said that in the past few years, the real estate industry dominated the real estate industry, high housing prices hijacked the Chinese economy, and a large amount of capital poured into the real estate industry disorderly with bank loans. What kind of financial system is needed to support it.
The third is to develop green finance in light of China's national conditions. Huang Qifan said that my country's green financial business has developed rapidly under the dual carbon goal, but the transformation requires a process. Even if the "30·60" goal is achieved in the future, coal power is still an important supplement, "So in this process, financial Departments cannot talk about coal color change, but should develop a financing system that serves green transformation based on national conditions." Huang Qifan said.
The fourth is to accelerate the development of science and technology finance for small and mediumsized science and technology enterprises. Huang Qifan believes that in recent years, a lot of angel investment and venture capital have emerged in China, but many institutions lack the discernment of truly advanced technology and innovative unicorns. In the last round of consumer Internet era, these giants we saw are all invested heavily by foreign capital. In this round, in frontier fields such as digital economy, bioeconomy and green economy, can these domestic institutions seize the opportunity?
The fifth is how finance can better serve common prosperity. Huang Qifan said that conditions should be created for ordinary workers to have investment income channels in addition to their normal salary income, such as developing annuities and building annuities into one of the three pillars of the pension system. The capital market, which not only creates conditions for employees to share the benefits of capital appreciation, but also provides a steady stream of longterm capital to the capital market, which serves multiple purposes." Huang Qifan believes.
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